On July 3, Pi Network (PI) is trading slightly higher, mirroring a broader crypto market recovery. At the time of writing, PI is priced at $0.50, up 1.63% in the past 24 hours. However, this modest gain masks underlying bearish pressure, as the token forms a classic bear flag pattern ahead of a major $10 million token unlock scheduled for tomorrow.
Bear Flag Pattern Hints at Potential 28% Drop
Pi Network has developed a bearish flag, a technical pattern that often signals the continuation of a downtrend after a brief rally. The flagpole was formed in late June when PI dropped from $0.66 to a low of $0.47, marking a 28% decline. If the price breaks below the lower boundary of the current ascending channel, another 28% drop could follow, targeting $0.351.
Bear flag breakdowns typically occur when bullish momentum fades and sellers regain control. However, if PI breaks above the upper boundary of the channel, it could invalidate the bearish outlook and signal renewed buying strength.
Indicators at a Crossroads
Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) are hovering near the neutral 50 level. A rejection here could sap bullish momentum and trigger a downturn. On the flip side, continued market strength could push these indicators into bullish territory, helping PI avoid a steep correction.
Whale Activity Offers a Glimmer of Hope
Large holders are withdrawing PI from exchanges, which may reduce selling pressure. If this trend continues, it could help stabilize the price and prevent a fall to $0.351.
$10M Token Unlock Poses Major Risk
Investor anxiety is mounting ahead of a scheduled unlock of over 19 million PI tokens worth nearly $10 million at current prices set to hit the market within 24 hours. PiScan data also reveals that over the next 30 days, more than 300 million tokens will be unlocked, averaging 10 million per day. This influx could overwhelm demand and push PI below the key $0.40 psychological level.
Open Interest Rises Despite Bearish Setup
Interestingly, open interest in PI futures has surged to $23.19 million, according to Coinalyze. While rising open interest alongside price can be bullish, it also raises the risk of a long squeeze if the price falters.
Conclusion
Pi Network is at a critical juncture. The bear flag pattern, combined with the imminent $10M token unlock, suggests a potential 28% crash to $0.351 unless buyers step in decisively. The next 24 hours could determine whether PI stabilizes or spirals lower.
